Temporal dynamic effects of public innovation subsidies on firms’ significant innovation outcomes
基于芬兰企业22年面板数据，研究发现研发创新补贴对企业商业化重大创新的概率有温和但持续的正向动态效应，在首次获补贴后5-8年达到峰值。
Abstract Longitudinal studies examining dynamic effects of research, development, and innovation (RDI) subsidies on firm-level outcomes—particularly their role in promoting significant innovations—remain limited. This has left policymakers at a disadvantage in coordinating complementary innovation policy instruments. Using a literature-based innovation output measure, we address these shortcomings by means of a nationally representative panel study of Finnish enterprises’ significant innovation outcomes observed over 22 years. Relative to confounding factors, we find that the average dynamic effects of RDI grant subsidies on companies’ probability to commercialize a significant innovation are modest but mostly positive, persisting, and dynamically increasing, peaking around five to eight years after first receiving a grant. Robustness tests, including results based on counts of granted patents, generally support the main findings of the study. Based on our empirical insights, we provide an economic interpretation of our results, suggesting that a consistent long-term innovation subsidy policy plays a meaningful role in advancing innovation output.