When Nature Talks, Markets Move: Forecasting the Equity Premium With Eco‐Climate Incidents
本文利用RepRisk争议数据构建生物多样性、温室气体排放和局部污染指标，发现生物多样性指标能有效预测美国股票溢价，表现优于其他生态气候风险，对投资者和政策制定者有重要参考价值。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of eco‐climate information, particularly biodiversity risks, in forecasting the U.S. equity premium. Using RepRisk controversy data, we construct indicators for biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and local pollution. Biodiversity indicators emerge as strong predictors of the equity premium, outperforming other eco‐climate risks in return predictability and trading performance. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating biodiversity risks into financial decision‐making, with implications for investors, policymakers, and the broader financial system.