Aging, industrial robot input and export performance: evidence from Chinese industrial firms
利用2002-2016年中国工业企业数据，研究了老龄化如何通过工业机器人投入的替代、创造和生产率效应来缓解对出口的负面影响。
With the acceleration of aging and the development of robot, it affects the economic and trade development of countries around the world. However, few papers have provided insight into whether and how industrial robot input affects export in an aging real economy. This study examines the relationship between aging, industrial robot input and export performance from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretically, it integrates aging and industrial robot into a model of heterogeneous firms for analysis. Empirically, the study utilizes industrial firm data, customs data and census data in China from 2002 to 2016, established a fixed-effect regression model, complemented by a series of robustness tests and analyses of heterogeneity. The findings indicate that, although aging results in increased labour costs for firms and constrains research and development expenditure by both local governments and businesses, the negative impact of aging can be somewhat mitigated by the substitution, creation, and productivity effects of industrial robot inputs. While we may be unable to control the inevitability of aging and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, we can attain a deeper understanding of their theoretical mechanisms and transmission pathways. By adapting to these trends, we can offer valuable policy recommendations and theoretical foundations to support the economic development of countries. First published online 8 June 2026