Not a Decline but a Constraint: An analysis of youth agricultural engagement in Malawi using nationally representative data
利用马拉维2010-2019年四轮全国面板数据，分析青年农业参与的决定因素，发现土地、推广服务和农具获取是关键，教育水平高反而降低参与概率，参与模式从多样化转向专业化。
Youth engagement in agriculture is often described as declining, yet evidence from many parts of the Global South shows that participation is shaped more by structural constraints than by a lack of interest. This study examines the determinants of Malawian youth agricultural engagement using four waves of nationally representative data from the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey for 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019. Youth participation is classified into three categories based on their involvement -crop production, livestock production, or both. A multinomial logit model is used to analyse how individual characteristics, household conditions, and access to agricultural support systems shape these forms of engagement. The results show that youth agricultural participation is strongly associated with access to land, extension services, and farm implements. These factors have the largest marginal effects across all model specifications. Higher levels of education correspond with lower probabilities of engagement, while age and marital status show positive associations. Predicted probabilities indicate modest changes over time, with a gradual shift from diversified to more specialized participation. The findings contribute to rural studies debates by showing that youth engagement in agriculture is shaped by structural and institutional conditions rather than by disengagement. Policies that expand land access, strengthen extension services and improve access to basic agricultural tools may support more inclusive youth livelihoods.