Finance 5.0, Digital Financial Inclusion, and Carbon Footprint: Evidence From a Multi‐Country Panel Using Threshold Models
研究了数字金融和普惠金融对碳排放的非线性影响，发现数字金融在达到一定门槛后能减少碳排放，而普惠金融则增加碳排放，尤其在新兴经济体。
ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of digital finance and financial inclusion on carbon emissions within a multi‐country panel framework, contributing to the emerging Finance 5.0 literature that links digital transformation with environmental sustainability. Using data for 540 country–year observations, we employ a combination of linear and nonlinear econometric techniques, including panel smooth transition regression (PSTR), common correlated effects (CCE), augmented mean group (AMG), and instrumental‐variable GMM estimators. The results reveal a nonlinear, regime‐dependent relationship between digital finance and carbon emissions. Digital finance increases emissions at low levels of digital penetration but significantly reduces emissions once a critical digitalization threshold is surpassed, confirming “first promote, then inhibit” dynamics. Financial inclusion, by contrast, exhibits a positive and robust effect on carbon emissions, particularly in emerging and developing economies where consumption‐driven mechanisms dominate. Subgroup AMG estimates further show that digital finance yields stronger emission‐reducing effects in advanced economies than in developing ones, reflecting differences in infrastructure, regulatory capacity, and renewable‐energy adoption. Robustness tests using IV–GMM, CCE–MG, and bootstrap‐based threshold validation confirm the stability of the main findings. Policy implications suggest that digital financial systems become environmentally beneficial only when supported by adequate digital infrastructure, green‐finance frameworks, and institutional maturity. The study underscores the need for sequencing strategies that integrate digitalization with climate‐oriented financial regulation to ensure that financial inclusion and FinTech development contribute to a low‐carbon transition.