Digital infrastructure and education as drivers of entrepreneurship in the European Union
研究了2010-2023年欧盟26国数字基础设施和人力资本对新企业密度的影响，发现不同创新阶段国家效果不同：中等创新国家数字基础设施短期和长期均促进创业，而强创新国家短期有调整成本、长期才受益；高等教育短期促进创业但长期因机会成本上升转为抑制。
In the context of accelerated digital transformation, understanding the factors that stimulate entrepreneurship at the European level has become a strategic priority. This study investigates the impact of digital infrastructure and human capital on new business density in the European Union, testing the hypothesis that these determinants operate differently depending on countries’ innovation stage. The analysis is grounded in a balanced panel dataset covering 26 EU member states over the period 2010–2023, grouped into four innovation clusters according to the European Innovation Scoreboard. Empirical analysis adopts a dual econometric approach. Static relationships are estimated using a Panel EGLS framework with cross-section SUR weights to capture short-run correlations and cross-country interdependence. Dynamic relationships are examined through a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimated via the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method, allowing for the identification of long-run equilibrium effects and adjustment dynamics while accounting for structural heterogeneity. Results show substantial cross-cluster heterogeneity. For Moderate Innovators, primarily located in Southern and Central Europe, digital infrastructure acts as a clear catalyst for entrepreneurship, exerting positive effects on new business density in both the short and long run. In contrast, for Strong Innovators, digitalization displays a more complex temporal pattern, with short-run effects dominated by implementation and adjustment costs, while long-run benefits materialize as productivity gains. The analysis shows that tertiary education supports entrepreneurial entry in the short run, while its long-run effect becomes negative, reflecting rising opportunity costs and the increasing absorption of skilled labor into corporate employment. While emerging economies benefit directly from investments in digital infrastructure, mature economies require structural interventions to reduce market rigidities and better align human capital with entrepreneurial activity.