Opportunistic Upskilling in European Labour Markets—Evidence From a Wide Replication
复制并扩展了美国2007年衰退期间“机会性技能提升”的分析，利用2019-2023年欧洲在线招聘数据和乌克兰难民流入作为工具变量，发现劳动力供给增加显著提高了教育和经验要求，表明雇主在宏观经济困难时期会机会性地提升技能需求。
ABSTRACT We build on Modestino et al., who analysed “opportunistic upskilling” during the 2007 recession in the US, by extending their approach to European labour markets following recent economic shocks. Using a comprehensive dataset of online job postings (2019–2023) and an instrumental variable approach leveraging Ukrainian refugee inflows, we find that increases in labour supply have a significant positive effect on both education and experience requirements. Our findings reinforce the idea that employers opportunistically upskill labour demand in different but challenging macroeconomic contexts. The identification of such patterns, however, depends on the presence of a plausibly exogenous shock to labour markets.