The Base Rate Fallacy: Evidence from Bank Loan Committees.
研究比较了个人贷款官员与贷款委员会在利用贷款违约基础率时的差异，发现两者均受财务报表信息代表性影响，且均未达到贝叶斯规范准确性。
Abstract This study examined differences in the utilization of loan default base rate information between individual loan officers and committees. Base rate utilization was examined relative to (1) the representativeness of the financial statement information and (2) normative accuracy as prescribed by Bayesian theory. Results indicated that both individuals and loan committees were affected by the representativeness of the financial statement information in their utilization of population default rates. Neither group was more prescriptively accurate in a Bayesian sense.