Assessing Risk and Uncertainty in New Technology Investments.
针对传统资本预算模型在评估新技术投资时的不足，本文提出了一个包含不可量化不确定性的三维风险-回报框架，帮助管理者更全面地评估投资决策。
Abstract SYNOPSIS: Recently, much attention has focused on the shortcomings of traditional capital budgeting models in evaluating new technology investments. Critics argue that such models, particularly those based on discounted cash flows, lead managers to favor less promising investments over strategic new technology investments because many benefits of the strategic investment are highly uncertain and cannot be quantified. Furthermore, the riskiness of a new technology investment is difficult to assess because outcome probabilities are difficult to estimate. Consequently, several writers have concluded that traditional capital budgeting models are inadequate for evaluating new technology investments. This paper provides a theory-based framework for evaluating nonquantifiable uncertainties and multiple aspects of risk in capital investments and makes the following contributions: • The two-dimensional risk-return framework is extended to include a third dimension, nonquantifiable uncertainty. This expanded framework enables managers to formally evaluate all significant nonquantifiabte uncertainties relevant to the resource allocation decision. • The proposed evaluation approach makes a clear distinction between quantifiable returns, quantifiable risks, and nonquantifiable uncertainties. If a clear distinction is not made when evaluating benefits, the quantifiable part of the benefit may be counted twice--once in the quantifiable return and once when nonquantifiable benefits are evaluated. The approach proposed in this paper reduces the possibility of double-counting. • A composite measure of quantifiable risk is introduced in this paper. By capturing multiple aspects of risk, this composite measure provides managers with more risk information than models which define risk in terms of a single parameter. The composite risk measure also reflects the objectives of the firm.