Improving tax revenues in the emerging markets: A Laffer curve analysis
用拉弗曲线框架分析新兴市场和发展中经济体如何通过扩大税基和加强制度质量来提高税收收入，发现仅提高税率无效，需改善合规、减少豁免和推进制度改革。
Abstract Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can significantly improve their tax‐to‐GDP ratios by expanding the tax base and strengthening institutional quality. This paper develops a neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents‐ Ricardian and non‐Ricardian households‐to examine fiscal capacity using a Laffer curve framework. It highlights two key constraints in EMDEs: a large untaxed population‐including exempt and informally employed individuals, and institutional weakness reflected in tax evasion, poor audits, and weak compliance norms. Non‐Ricardians are untaxed; Ricardians may evade or pay taxes. Results show that raising tax rates alone is ineffective; broader compliance, limited exemptions, and institutional reforms are essential.