Renewable, fossil fuel, and nuclear energy responses to global shocks: Lessons from China and the United States
使用贝叶斯向量自回归模型，评估了中美两国化石燃料、可再生能源和核能对地缘政治风险及全球经济政策不确定性冲击的反应，发现美国优先保障能源安全与可负担性，而中国更侧重可持续性。
This paper evaluates how U.S. primary energy production and Chinese electricity generation from fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear sources react to geopolitical risk (GPR) and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model for the period 1997–2025, the estimates reveal how these countries accommodate the energy trilemma in the face of common shocks. The results show that the U.S. expands fossil fuel and nuclear production, while China increases renewable energy in response to GPR shocks. Based on impulse response functions, the response in the U.S. is likely driven by investment adjustments and a reorientation of energy policy, whereas in China the short-run production changes appear to reflect mechanical adjustments. However, variance decomposition results indicate persistent long-term effects in both countries, suggesting that installed capacity expansion, investment adjustments, and energy policy reorientation may drive changes in energy production. Given their national characteristics, the findings suggest that the U.S. prioritizes energy security and affordability in uncertain times, whereas China emphasizes the sustainability pillar of the energy trilemma. The main results remain robust when considering global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks, although some differences emerge: the U.S. increases its renewable energy production, while China decreases its electricity generation from fossil fuels. The empirical models capture effects of uncertainty shocks on energy over a 10-year horizon in both countries, indicating potential investment adjustments and changes in installed capacity. In other words, the energy trilemma is sensitive to the type of shock. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive view of how renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuel energy respond simultaneously to common global shocks within the framework of the energy trilemma.