Resilience or lock-in? Path dependency and structural change after the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake
研究了2009年意大利拉奎拉地震后当地经济的适应与专业化变化，发现灾害导致专业化与集中度持续、多样性减半、复杂性延迟下降，韧性来自行政服务连续性而非更新，集中治理强化了路径依赖与重建偏差，可能加剧长期脆弱性。
Focusing on the devastating 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila (Italy), we investigate how local economies adapt and specialise after disasters. We apply a large-scale synthetic control across multiple indices (specialisation, diversity, complexity) over a long period (2004–20). Results show persistent specialisation and concentration, a halving of diversity, and a delayed decline in complexity, with resilience stemming from the administrative continuity of essential services rather than from renewal. Finally, we find that centralised governance reflected and reinforced political–institutional path dependency, leading to reconstruction bias. This suggests that without strategic efforts toward diversification, disasters can consolidate structural lock-ins and long-term fragility.