The relationship between pesticides and risk in apple production
研究了意大利北部苹果生产中农药支出与产量和收入每公顷概率分布的关系，发现农药支出与下行风险负相关，而晚霜与产量下行风险正相关。
Abstract We examine how pesticide expenditure relates to the probability distribution of yield and revenue per hectare in apple production in northern Italy. Using a flexible moment-based approach, we find that pesticide expenditure is negatively associated with downside risk in yield and revenue, whereas late frosts are positively associated with downside risk in yield. Sensitivity analyses show that mean-equation estimates are robust to unobserved confounders, while negative semi-variance models are less robust overall. Only the pesticide–expected outcome relationship appears plausibly causal. Therefore, conclusions about pesticides as risk-increasing or risk-decreasing inputs should be made with caution.