Decarbonization in Financial Turbulent Times: Global Value Chains and Regulatory Framework
研究了153个国家在全球价值链参与、金融危机和制度质量影响下碳排放的动态变化，发现价值链参与增加排放，金融危机短期减少但长期可能增加排放，而良好的制度质量能缓解这些影响。
ABSTRACT This study examines how participation in global value chains (GVCs) influences carbon emissions amid financial turbulence, with attention to cross‐country heterogeneity and distributional dynamics. Although existing research has explored trade–environment linkages, limited attention has been given to how GVC integration interacts with financial crises and institutional quality across different emission regimes. Addressing this gap, the study employs a balanced panel of 153 countries and models emissions using total CO 2 output (excluding LULUCF). Financial turbulence is captured through banking, currency, and sovereign debt crises, whereas regulatory quality reflects institutional capacity. Using a panel quantile autoregressive distributed lag framework, the analysis reveals that deeper GVC participation consistently increases emissions in both the short and long run, with stronger effects at higher emission quantiles. This indicates that the carbon burden of global production fragmentation is disproportionately concentrated among high‐emitting economies. Financial crises reduce emissions in the short run through contractionary effects. However, their long‐run impacts are heterogeneous and may ultimately increase emissions, particularly in carbon‐intensive contexts where investment in cleaner technologies is delayed. Regulatory quality mitigates these effects over time, with stronger institutions associated with lower long‐run emissions and more disciplined adjustment during periods of turbulence. The findings provide new evidence that the environmental consequences of GVC participation are not uniform but depend on crisis conditions and governance structures. For firms and supply chain managers, the results highlight that international integration can embed carbon risks unless accompanied by deliberate upgrading, cleaner sourcing, and stronger oversight across production networks. Overall, the study contributes by integrating GVC dynamics, financial instability, and distributional heterogeneity into a unified empirical framework, offering insights relevant for business strategy and environmental governance.