Bounding the Effect of Persuasion with Monotonicity Assumptions: Reassessing the Impact of TV Debates
本文通过引入单调性假设，在不依赖外生处理或平行趋势的条件下，部分识别了电视辩论的说服率，并重新评估了其对选民的影响，发现上限效果仍然有限。
Abstract Televised debates between presidential candidates are often regarded as the exemplar of persuasive communication. Yet, recent evidence from Le Pennec and Pons (2023) indicates that they may not sway voters as strongly as popular belief suggests. We revisit their findings through the lens of the persuasion rate and introduce a robust framework that does not require exogenous treatment, parallel trends, or credible instruments. Instead, we leverage plausible monotonicity assumptions to partially identify the persuasion rate and related parameters. Our results reaffirm that the sharp upper bounds on the persuasive effects of TV debates remain modest.