Demand management and forecasting in pharmaceutical and vaccine supply chains: a review and conceptual framework
系统综述2010年以来药品和疫苗供应链的需求管理与预测文献，指出方法、情境和整合方面的不足，并提出一个多层预测框架，帮助研究人员和决策者提升供应链绩效。
Despite the wide range of forecasting approaches developed over the past decades, research addressing pharmaceutical and vaccine supply chains (P&VSCs) remains relatively limited compared with other industries, although recent years have witnessed more studies in this area. This article systematically reviews the literature on demand management and forecasting in P&VSCs published since 2010 to identify key methodological and contextual gaps. While traditional approaches continue to prevail, recent studies have introduced intelligent approaches to address demand volatility and data complexity. However, several important dimensions remain underexplored, including demand intermittency and aggregation, product lifecycle stages, branded versus generic dynamics, and the incorporation of external demand drivers. Moreover, existing studies primarily focus on forecast accuracy, with limited attention to forecast utility, particularly its economic implications, and a weak alignment with strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making. Fragmentation across supply chain actors and forecasting levels further limits responsiveness, especially in low- and middle-income countries. To address these gaps, the article proposes a multi-layered forecasting framework tailored to P&VSCs that supports data preparation, product segmentation, method selection, and performance evaluation. By emphasising explainability, vertical and horizontal forecast integration, and economic relevance, this article provides actionable insights for researchers and decision-makers seeking to improve P&VSCs performance.