Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Multidimensional Child Poverty Dynamics: Evidence from China
利用2010-2022年中国家庭追踪调查数据，构建六维度十五指标的多维儿童贫困框架，发现精准扶贫政策显著降低了贫困线附近的儿童多维贫困，但营养剥夺和数字排斥问题日益突出。
This study examines the long-term evolution of multidimensional child poverty in China between 2010 and 2022 and evaluates the impact of the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program implemented from 2014 to 2020. Using longitudinal China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data and the Alkire–Foster method, we construct a multidimensional child poverty framework covering six dimensions and fifteen indicators. We document both temporal trends in overall deprivation and shifts in its dimensional composition. To identify causal effects, we exploit poverty-line adjustments and implement a fuzzy regression-discontinuity (RD) design to estimate the local impact of TPA eligibility. The results reveal a substantial decline in the multidimensional poverty headcount over time, mainly driven by improvements in household living conditions, educational outcomes, and parent–child engagement. However, deprivation intensity among the remaining poor remains persistently high, with nutritional deprivation and digital exclusion accounting for an increasing share of multidimensional poverty. The RD estimates suggest that TPA significantly reduced vulnerable multidimensional poverty near the eligibility threshold in later years, primarily through improved living conditions. These findings underscore the need for more targeted and adaptive policy responses as the structure of child deprivation continues to evolve.