Navigating a demographically bifurcated multipolar world: labor, capital, and the multinational firm
研究了人口分叉（一些国家快速老龄化、另一些国家劳动力增长）如何影响跨国公司的选址决策和资本流动，并探讨了跨国公司如何利用地缘套利机会，以及政策制定者如何避免人口分叉成为负担。
Abstract While demographic change is an acknowledged influence on location advantages, we highlight the lesser-studied phenomenon of demographic bifurcation—the simultaneous co-existence of rapidly aging, shrinking populations in some countries, and expanding working-age populations in others. How does demographic bifurcation affect the location choices of multinational firms, and the movement of capital and labor in a world characterized by geo-economic fragmentation that discourages cross-border migration? How will multinational firms respond, given their expertise in geo-arbitrage? We discuss emerging core-periphery models in a world consisting of geo-economic spheres of influence, how multinational firms might exploit new arbitrage opportunities, and how policymakers must find ways to avoid bifurcation becoming a liability. For demographic change not to become a liability, policymakers must coordinate within these interconnected domains, as new interdependencies emerge. We call for an interdisciplinary research agenda that integrates demography into the core of international business strategy and global value chain theory.