The value of dispatchability and earnings-at-risk of electricity generators in the energy transition
研究了澳大利亚国家电力市场中不同发电技术的调度加权价格和收益风险，发现可调度机组（如水力、天然气和电池储能）比不可调度的可再生能源机组有更高的调度加权价格，但收益风险也更大。
Electricity markets are currently going through a period of substantial transformation from coal-fired power generation to an increasing share of renewable energy. Despite the environmental benefits of increased renewable energy in terms of CO2 emission savings, the intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) not only increases the volatility of the remaining generators’ revenues, but also indicates high uncertainty for investment in renewables. This paper examines dispatch-weighted prices (DWPs) and earnings-at-risk (EaR) for different generation technologies in the Australian National Electricity Market. We find that dispatchable generators such as hydro, natural gas and battery storage with controllable and flexible output achieve higher DWPs than less flexible generators such as coal fired power plants. They also achieve higher DWPs than VRE generators, i.e. solar and wind farms, which are non-dispatchable. Examining cashflow-based EaR measures, we further find very different risk profiles for different generation technologies. While dispatchable and flexible generators with stronger correlation with spot prices have generally higher upside potential of earnings compared to coal fired plants and VRE generators, their EaRs are also much higher, which indicates greater uncertainty in profits. Furthermore, the seasonal analysis suggests that the transition toward a renewable-dominated supply mix is making winter the season with the most volatile spot prices and the greatest uncertainty in generator earnings, due to the generally lower availability of VRE resources during this period. Our analysis provides important insights to investors on decision making, hedging strategies and portfolio management, as well as to regulators on effective planning to ensure sustainable and secure supply of electricity.