The big impact of small change: Fresh estimates of English wheat market integration, 1693–1893
利用新旧价格数据集,首次估计了工业革命200年间英格兰小麦市场整合程度,发现远离伦敦的市场整合显著改善,到1830年代完全整合。同时指出数据质量问题会严重偏误标准统计检验,并开发了新方法确保有效推断。
Abstract Using existing and new price data sets, we provide the first estimates of market integration across England over the entire 200 years of the industrial revolution. We document a significant, though not huge, integration improvement for markets furthest from London. Full integration was achieved by the 1830s. Our price data sets vary in quality (type of average, price rounding, frequency of stale prices). We show that this severely biases some standard statistical tests of market integration, and we develop and implement new techniques to ensure valid inference. We discuss the application of these techniques to other historical data sets.