Public transit and shared micromobility bundles: Contrasting stated preferences and actual sales
通过瑞士居民的陈述偏好实验和实际销售数据，发现共享微出行使用经验是购买捆绑套餐的关键因素，但陈述偏好与实际购买之间存在巨大差距，仅2.4-4.6%的假设兴趣转化为实际购买。
Bundles and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) plans are seen as promising instruments to integrate shared electric micromobility with public transit, yet evidence on effective designs and their real-world uptake remains scarce. In a first step, we use a stated choice experiment among Swiss residents ( n = 1 , 422 across two samples) and estimate mixed logit models to assess preferences for three subscription bundle types (flat rates, 50% discount passes, minute packages) and single-journey bundles. In a second step, we compare the model-implied market shares with sales data from a 10-week pilot in Eastern Switzerland. Prior experience of shared micromobility services emerged as the dominant predictor of bundle utility. We document a substantial gap between stated preference and adoption: only 2.4-4.6% of hypothetical interest translates into purchases. Despite this gap, the sales compare favorably to previous MaaS trials. The results imply that practitioners should anticipate considerably lower uptake than is indicated by survey-based projections.