Did the United States Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?
本文研究了1951年美联储-财政部协议前，预算盈余、意外通胀和利率管制对美国公共债务/GDP比率的影响，发现若没有这些扭曲，债务/GDP下降幅度远小于实际历史数据，表明经济增长对债务削减的作用有限。
This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates.