Private firm information dissemination and analysts’ public firm forecast accuracy
利用欧盟强制采用电子商业登记作为外生冲击，研究发现私营企业信息传播显著提升了分析师对上市公司的盈利预测准确性，但同时也因投资者注意力转移而部分抵消了这种正面效应。
Abstract We examine the effect of private firm information dissemination on analysts’ forecast accuracy for public firms, utilizing the mandatory adoption of electronic business registers in EU countries as a (plausibly) exogenous shock. Our findings reveal a significant improvement in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy following the registers’ implementation that enhanced private firms’ information dissemination, indicating positive information spillovers to public firms. This effect strengthens (i) when private firm disclosures are timelier within the context of the focal public firm’s fiscal year and (ii) when the focal public firm has private firm suppliers, customers, or competitors. However, increased transparency of private firms also reduces analysts’ incentives to cover public firms, as investor attention shifts from public to private firms. This countervailing force negatively impacts analyst forecast accuracy, partially offsetting the positive effects from information spillovers.