Winning the oil lottery: the impact of natural resource extraction on growth
利用巴西石油钻井数据，发现石油发现显著提升当地生产并产生正向溢出，促使劳动力从低生产率农业转向高附加值服务业，推动城市化。
Abstract This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on local development. Novel data covering the universe of oil wells drilled in Brazil allow us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase local production and have positive spillovers. Workers relocate from informal, low productivity agriculture to higher value-added activities in formal services, increasing urbanization. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.