Is response time predictive of choice? An experimental study of threshold strategies
通过一个简单的全球博弈实验，研究反应时间作为非选择数据能否预测阈值行为。发现实验初期最高或次高反应时间对应的信号是实验末期阈值的无偏估计，且预测能力优于博弈均衡预测。
Abstract This paper investigates the usefulness of non-choice data, namely response times, as a predictor of threshold behavior in a simple global game experiment. Our results indicate that the signals associated to the highest or second highest response time at the beginning of the experiment are both unbiased estimates of the threshold employed by subjects at the end of the experiment. This predictive ability is lost when we move to the third or higher response times. Moreover, the response time predictions are better than the equilibrium predictions of the game. They are also robust, in the sense that they characterize behavior in an “out-of-treatment” exercise where we use the strategy method to elicit thresholds.