Stopping Rules for Sequences of Factorial Designs
针对1950年代提出的响应曲面和部分析因实验序列设计中的停止问题，本文用贝叶斯分析做出决策，通过计算最优响应与预测最优响应之差的 posterior 分布，当该分布均值低于指定值时停止实验。
When the sequential design of response surface and fractional factorial experiments was introduced in the 1950s, the question of deciding when to stop was raised but not answered. In this paper the decision is made using a Bayesian analysis, by obtaining the posterior distribution of the difference between the optimal response and the response from the predicted optimum. The experimentation is stopped, for example, when the mean of this posterior distribution falls below a specified value. The method works best if the variances of the prior distribution are not too low.