Industrial Diversity, Growth, and Volatility in the Seven States of the Tenth District
研究了美国第十区七个州产业多样性对经济增长波动和长期增长的影响，发现多样性可降低短期波动，但对长期增长的影响存在争议。
State and local officials have long sought to diversify the mix of industries in their regions, hoping to reduce short-term volatility in their communities ’ economic growth rates and potentially boost overall long-term growth. Economic theory predicts that, just as diversifying an investment portfolio can help reduce risk, the diversification of industries in a given region can help reduce volatility in growth rates. The theory is that regions specializing heavily in only one or two industries will be tied closely to the fate of those industries, a condition that may lead to large swings in employment growth and wage growth. If instead employment is spread across many industries, then when one industry stumbles, others may still fuel the region’s overall economic performance and mitigate volatility in its growth rates. While theory suggests diversity reduces volatility, views are mixed on how industrial diversity affects long-term growth. According to one view, even if diversity does offer the benefit of reduced volatility,