Inter‐phase feedbacks in construction projects
利用15个建筑项目数据，量化设计与施工阶段间的反馈效应，发现未发现的设计返工会显著降低施工质量和生产率，而施工完成会加速发现设计返工，这些反馈可解释项目成本变异的20%。
Abstract Understanding diverse performance trajectories of projects is of interest to operations researchers and practitioners. Interactions between multiple phases of a project are commonly assumed to be important in project dynamics, yet the strength of these feedback mechanisms has not been rigorously evaluated. In this study we use data from 15 construction projects to estimate the feedbacks between design and construction phases. The estimated factors reveal that undiscovered design rework diminishes construction quality and production rate significantly and construction completion speeds up the detection of undiscovered design rework. Together, these feedbacks can explain as much as 20% of variability in overall project costs. Comparison of model predictions with a separate set of 15 projects shows good predictive power for cost and schedule outcomes and their uncertainty. The estimation and prediction framework offers a template for using data from multiple cases to estimate both case‐specific and industry‐wide parameters of project models, and for leveraging those estimates for project planning.